This is the time of year when newspapers feature stories on Year 12 students who apply to go to university, but miss out. Recent ACER research has looked at the number of young people in this group, their background characteristics, and what happens to them after they do not get into university.

The study, Unmet Demand? Characteristics and Activities of University Applicants Not Offered a Place, was released by ACER in December 2005 as part of the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY). It included almost 8000 young people who were in Year 9 in 1998. Most completed Year 12 in 2001. A relatively small proportion of the group, around 5 per cent, applied to enter university but were not offered a place. This amounted to about 10 per cent of all Year 12 university applicants in 2001. These unsuccessful applicants are commonly referred to as indicating ‘unmet demand’ for university places. The study followed members of the unmet demand group from 1998 until 2003, which was two years after Year 12 for most of them.

Membership of the group of students who applied to university but did not receive an offer was slightly higher among women than men, higher among those from metropolitan than non-metropolitan areas and higher among those from non-English speaking backgrounds. It was lower among those whose parents had professional backgrounds and more highly educated backgrounds. However, overall there were only small differences in demographic and social background between the students who applied to university but did not receive an offer and the other students enrolled in Year 12 in 2001.

Students in the unmet demand group had expressed clear intentions to go to university. In years 9 to 11, about 70 per cent of the group indicated that they wished to attend university. However, the study’s analysis suggested that the unmet demand group was substantially less academically able that those who were offered a university place and subsequently enrolled. Their average ENTER score was only 54 compared to over 80 for those who enrolled at university. In addition, they showed substantially lower mean scores in Year 9 literacy and numeracy achievement.

The findings also indicated that some members of the unmet demand group may have been unrealistic in their expectations by applying for courses with cut-off ENTER scores well above what they had achieved or they did not perform as well in Year 12 as they had hoped. On average, the courses that unsuccessful applicants had chosen as their first preference had a cut-off ENTER score of 20 points above what they had achieved.

The study also examined how the unmet demand group fared in the immediate years after missing out on going to university. About 45 per cent were engaged in some other form of education or training two years after completing Year 12. Around 24 per cent were enrolled in a TAFE diploma course, 11 per cent in a Traineeship, 6 per cent in a TAFE Certificate course and 5 per cent in an Apprenticeship.  A total of 37 per cent were working full-time. Seven per cent were unemployed. The report concluded that these relatively high levels of participation in other forms of education and training suggest that credit transfer arrangements may enable some of the unsuccessful applicants to enter university at a later stage of their lives, if their interests are still in that direction.

Further information and additional findings are available in the report, Unmet Demand? Characteristics and Activities of University Applicants Not Offered a Place by Gary N Marks. The study is research report number 46 in the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) research series, a program conducted jointly by ACER and the Australian Government Department of Education, Science and Training (DEST).

« Back to eNews