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International trends and employment in Australia

Australian jobs will tend to be more qualified in future, and there will be a need to increase the proportion of new and existing workers with qualifications according to a presentation at a conference about responding to economic trends and social needs in Australian education and training.

The paper presented by Gerald Burke and Phil McKenzie at the Monash University-ACER Centre for the Economics of Education and Training (CEET) annual conference argued there is also a need to increase the qualifications of those underemployed or not employed, including older people, to increase their employability.

Of the job growth projected between 2005 and 2013 (about 1.1 million extra jobs), more than half are expected to be professional and associate professional positions. Nearly two-thirds of job openings (nearly 3 million jobs in total) are expected to be in professional, associate professional, elementary and intermediate clerical, sales and services occupations. (There will be more job openings than total growth in jobs because people leaving their jobs need to be replaced.)

In the same period, the projected employment growth is 1.4 per cent per annum, while the projected labour supply is only 0.6 per cent per annum, depending on immigration and participation rates.

Dr McKenzie told the conference that international trade is helping some low income countries narrow the gap with wealthy countries. For example, China is set to double GPD in 7 years. In contrast it will take Australia 21years to double its GDP at current rates. He said there is also an association between opening up your country to trade and greater income inequality in developed countries.

These changes have considerable implications for the supply and demand of skills, services and goods. The manufacturing share of employment has fallen in recent years while business services have gone up.

Australia is a relatively low trade country. During the 1990s, countries that were more open to international trade and investment grew at twice the rate of less open countries. However, rising trade does have some potential losers. Not surprisingly, those who lose out are usually poorly educated, older workers, especially in manufacturing. However, international trade is only one of the factors leading to employment changes: changes in technology and consumption patterns are generally more significant.

International trends and employment in Australia: key findings was presented by Phil McKenzie and Gerald Burke at the Monash-ACER Centre for the Economics of Education and Training (CEET) National Conference in October. Further information on CEET is available on the centre’s website at www.education.monash.edu/centres/ceet/

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