“Crisis” accounts of the youth labour market are not supported by a new ACER report released on 18 May. The report also disputes claims that young people who are not fully engaged in full-time work or study are “at risk” of an unsuccessful school-to-work transition. While some young people are experiencing severe difficulties in the transition from school to full-time work, this group probably comprises less than 10 per cent of non-university bound school leavers.

An analysis of the labour market outcomes of 5500 young Australians who did not go to university has found generally positive employment outcomes that improved with time. The group was first surveyed in Year 9 in 1995 and tracked through to 2002 when their average age was 21 and they had been out of school for between four and six years.

In the first year after leaving school, 61 per cent of young men and 45 per cent of young women were working full-time. A little over half of young male and a third of female full-time workers were also studying part time. Twelve per cent of women and 6 per cent of men were working part time while 27 per cent of women and 20 per cent of men were studying full-time. About 9 per cent of both men and women were unemployed with a further 2 per cent not studying or in the labour force.

By the fourth year after leaving school about 77 per cent of males and 65 per cent of females were in full-time work. The type of work also changed over time: higher proportions moved into professional and skilled jobs, earnings increased, and job satisfaction improved. Most of those who had started in part-time jobs moved into full-time employment by the fourth year.

Such findings show that the youth labour market is highly dynamic and today’s youth are a diverse and very mobile group. A young person engaged in part-time work or study in one year does not necessarily remain in that position over a long period of time. Tracking their progress for several years enables us to better understand the transition from school to work.

Full-time work shows a high degree of stability. Approximately 90 per cent of young men in full-time work at the time of the survey in one year were in full-time work the next year. For young women the stability of full-time work was lower, but still very high, at around 80 per cent.

The group studied has benefited from a strong economy and decreasing unemployment rates. Their employment outcomes may not be as positive in times of economic downturn and high unemployment.

The situation of those who are not studying or in the labour market, often referred to as being engaged in ‘other’ activities, is more complex. This should not be understood as tantamount to being in unemployment. ‘Other’ activities often include travel, and in the later years comprise a high proportion of young women looking after their own children. Some disillusioned job-seekers are also likely to be in this category.

Post-school activity varies according to demographic and social background factors, but apart from Indigenous status and to a lesser extent language background, differences by social group in post-school activity are small. Similarly, many educational factors are associated with post-school activity – strong achievements in literacy and numeracy, holding a part-time job while at secondary school, and participating in VET at school help to obtain full-time employment, but few of these factors lead to large impacts. An important exception is participation in apprenticeships, which among young men strongly promote full-time work. Traineeships also promote full-time work, especially among young women, but to a lesser extent than apprenticeships.

In contrast to the modest influence of most social and educational background factors, post-school destinations are strongly associated with previous labour market experiences. Obtaining full-time work soon after leaving school substantially increases the chances of remaining in full-time work. Similarly, initial experiences of unemployment are associated with an increased likelihood of being unemployed later on. Gaining full-time employment early in the school-to-work transition is critical.

The results from this report also suggest that treating those who are not in full-time work or study in the initial period after leaving school as being the “at risk” group is simplistic. Young people not working or studying full-time are quite diverse and face markedly different circumstances, not all of which are likely to lead to problems in securing full-time employment in the future. Therefore there is a need to develop a more sophisticated measure of “at risk” which takes into account a broader range of factors.

The transition to full-time work of young people who do not go to university by Gary N Marks is research report number 49 in the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) program, conducted jointly by ACER and the Australian Government Department of Education, Science and Training (DEST).

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