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Growth targets and students numbers in higher education The Federal Government’s higher education targets are likely to be very difficult to achieve unless Bachelor degree attainment of 25 to 34 year olds can increase at twice the rate of population growth, according to a research review paper by ACER Senior Research Fellow Dr Daniel Edwards. In the fourth research briefing for the Joining the Dots series Dr Edwards examines the expansion of Australia’s higher education sector and how this might affect student numbers. In the paper, Expanding the sector: Growth targets and student numbers, Dr Edwards argues that the target of 40 per cent of 25 to 34 year olds in Australia holding a bachelor degree or above by 2025 could be made more difficult by recent changes to migration policies and the predicted fall in the number of international students studying in Australia. Recent substantial growth in attainment levels of the 25 to 34 year old cohort has been a result of strong migration and the growth of international students rather than any domestically driven increase in provision. “It is estimated that by 2025 a total of 1.47 million people aged 25 to 34 years olds, will need to have at least a bachelor level qualification if the 40 per cent attainment target is to be met,” Dr Edwards writes. “Australia will not reach these numbers through demographic change alone – the number of people with a bachelor degree or above in this age cohort will need to grow at twice the rate of natural population growth over the coming decade and a half.” Drawing on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Edwards argues that the clear growth in attainment over the past decade cannot be attributed to increased participation of domestic students in higher education. Rather, it is more likely that growth in higher education attainment levels has been the result of a strong skilled migration program, focused on young migrants in professional occupations, alongside large increases in the number of international students studying in Australia. “The role of domestic student expansion in Australia in achieving the Government’s target of 40 per cent attainment over the long term is of paramount importance,” Dr Edwards writes. An examination of research conducted by the Centre for Population and Urban Research (CPUR) and growth estimates from DEEWR indicate that the most serious growth in completion numbers will need to occur in the years between 2015 and 2021, with a required annual growth of five per cent and that actual numbers of domestic bachelor degree completions will need to increase from 100,000 in 2010 to 180,000 by 2025 – an 80 per cent growth in the sector. “While initial growth may be on track, the challenge for the sector will be increasing the rate of growth and sustaining such increases until the beginning of the next decade,” Dr Edwards argues in the paper. “The conclusion is that the estimates by DEEWR appear to follow the numbers in the CPUR scenario up until 2015, but from then onwards, there is a large and unknown gap in the following decade that needs to be filled.” While it is clear that there is a substantial amount of growth required in the sector over the coming decade and a half, there are still many questions about provision and the practicalities surrounding the sustainability of such growth. Joining the Dots is a subscription-based resource provided by ACER to those with an interest in Australian Higher Education. In 2011 the series includes eight research briefings, a monthly news and event digest and a webinar series. More detail can be found at www.acer.edu.au/jtd or by emailing .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) « Back to eNews
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The Federal Government’s higher education targets are likely to be very difficult to achieve unless Bachelor degree attainment of 25 to 34 year olds can increase at twice the rate of population growth, according to a research review paper by ACER Senior Research Fellow Dr Daniel Edwards.

In the fourth research briefing for the Joining the Dots series Dr Edwards examines the expansion of Australia’s higher education sector and how this might affect student numbers.

In the paper, Expanding the sector: Growth targets and student numbers, Dr Edwards argues that the target of 40 per cent of 25 to 34 year olds in Australia holding a bachelor degree or above by 2025 could be made more difficult by recent changes to migration policies and the predicted fall in the number of international students studying in Australia.

Recent substantial growth in attainment levels of the 25 to 34 year old cohort has been a result of strong migration and the growth of international students rather than any domestically driven increase in provision.

“It is estimated that by 2025 a total of 1.47 million people aged 25 to 34 years olds, will need to have at least a bachelor level qualification if the 40 per cent attainment target is to be met,” Dr Edwards writes.

“Australia will not reach these numbers through demographic change alone – the number of people with a bachelor degree or above in this age cohort will need to grow at twice the rate of natural population growth over the coming decade and a half.”

Drawing on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Edwards argues that the clear growth in attainment over the past decade cannot be attributed to increased participation of domestic students in higher education. Rather, it is more likely that growth in higher education attainment levels has been the result of a strong skilled migration program, focused on young migrants in professional occupations, alongside large increases in the number of international students studying in Australia.

“The role of domestic student expansion in Australia in achieving the Government’s target of 40 per cent attainment over the long term is of paramount importance,” Dr Edwards writes.

An examination of research conducted by the Centre for Population and Urban Research (CPUR) and growth estimates from DEEWR indicate that the most serious growth in completion numbers will need to occur in the years between 2015 and 2021, with a required annual growth of five per cent and that actual numbers of domestic bachelor degree completions will need to increase from 100,000 in 2010 to 180,000 by 2025 – an 80 per cent growth in the sector.

“While initial growth may be on track, the challenge for the sector will be increasing the rate of growth and sustaining such increases until the beginning of the next decade,” Dr Edwards argues in the paper.

“The conclusion is that the estimates by DEEWR appear to follow the numbers in the CPUR scenario up until 2015, but from then onwards, there is a large and unknown gap in the following decade that needs to be filled.”

While it is clear that there is a substantial amount of growth required in the sector over the coming decade and a half, there are still many questions about provision and the practicalities surrounding the sustainability of such growth.

Joining the Dots is a subscription-based resource provided by ACER to those with an interest in Australian Higher Education. In 2011 the series includes eight research briefings, a monthly news and event digest and a webinar series. More detail can be found at www.acer.edu.au/jtd or by emailing .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

Growth targets and students numbers in higher education