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Informing tertiary education planning There is considerable interest in the provision of and access to tertiary education within Australia’s states and territories. In 2009 the Victorian government began developing a Tertiary Education Plan for the state. Released in 2010, the plan detailed various targets and policy objectives in this sector, notably in response to the national 40 per cent bachelor degree attainment target for 25-34 year olds and the national 20 per cent low socioeconomic background enrolment target. In a report advising on the development of the Victorian Tertiary Education Plan, Expert Panel chair Professor Kwong Lee Dow noted that both of these targets will require greater participation from outer Melbourne and regional Victorian communities if they are to be achieved. A number of more specific Tertiary Education Plans, based on geographic locations within Victoria, are therefore being constructed. One such plan is being constructed for the Gippsland region in Victoria’s East and South-East. To inform the development of the Gippsland Tertiary Education Plan, Skills Victoria this year commissioned ACER to prepare three separate reports providing supporting analysis of (1) the region’s industry, employment and population profile, (2) the region’s student profile and (3) of student demand projections for the region. The first report analysed Gippsland’s industry, employment and population profile, highlighting recent change and projecting further change over the coming years. The employment analysis found that Gippsland has a lower rate of participation in the labour force than Melbourne. In regard to industry, of the eight largest industries in Gippsland, manufacturing is the only one projected not to grow. The demographic analysis identified that the proportion of 20–40 year olds in Gippsland was significantly lower than in Melbourne and Victoria. The second report provided statistical analysis of the local student profile, examining the numbers of school students and retention rates to year 12, the destinations of year 12 completers and tertiary choices of non-year 12 applicants from Gippsland. It found that school retention rates are significantly lower in Gippsland than in metropolitan regions. Analysis of On Track Victorian school-leaver data found that, compared to other regions in Victoria, school completers in Gippsland are less likely to be studying a Bachelor degree and are more likely to be studying at Certificate I–III level, in an apprenticeship, in part-time employment or looking for work. The report also identified that there are large numbers of adult learners within the region. The third report provides three projections of attendance rates at technical and vocational courses and tertiary courses in the Gippsland region, and focuses on persons aged 18-22. The three projections in this report are all modelled from 2006-2026, as 2006 represents the most recently available Census data. A Flat Projection assumes that 2006 proportions of attendees will remain stable. A Conservative Projection assumes that the trends in tertiary attendance in Gippsland will continue into the coming decades, while an Optimistic Projection assumes that tertiary attendance will rise at a more rapid rate than has been evident in the past decade or so. The information contained in these reports is being used to help achieve the goals of the Gippsland Tertiary Education Plan – to improve the delivery of tertiary education, improve post-school destinations for students, improve participation in education and training more generally for the community, identify and rectify gaps in delivery, and to prepare the sector for demand driven funding in both higher education and vocational education and training. Each of the full reports is available from the ACER Research Repository: Industry, Employment, and Population Profile - Supporting Analysis: Gippsland Tertiary Education Plan by ACER researchers Daniel Edwards, Paul Weldon and Tim Friedman http://research.acer.edu.au/higher_education/24/ Student Profile - Supporting Analysis: Gippsland Tertiary Education Plan by ACER researchers Daniel Edwards and Catherine Underwood http://research.acer.edu.au/higher_education/26/ Student Demand Projections - Supporting Analysis: Gippsland Tertiary Education Plan by ACER researchers Daniel Edwards and Paul Weldon http://research.acer.edu.au/higher_education/25/ « Back to eNews
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There is considerable interest in the provision of and access to tertiary education within Australia’s states and territories. In 2009 the Victorian government began developing a Tertiary Education Plan for the state. Released in 2010, the plan detailed various targets and policy objectives in this sector, notably in response to the national 40 per cent bachelor degree attainment target for 25-34 year olds and the national 20 per cent low socioeconomic background enrolment target.

In a report advising on the development of the Victorian Tertiary Education Plan, Expert Panel chair Professor Kwong Lee Dow noted that both of these targets will require greater participation from outer Melbourne and regional Victorian communities if they are to be achieved. A number of more specific Tertiary Education Plans, based on geographic locations within Victoria, are therefore being constructed.

One such plan is being constructed for the Gippsland region in Victoria’s East and South-East. To inform the development of the Gippsland Tertiary Education Plan, Skills Victoria this year commissioned ACER to prepare three separate reports providing supporting analysis of (1) the region’s industry, employment and population profile, (2) the region’s student profile and (3) of student demand projections for the region.

The first report analysed Gippsland’s industry, employment and population profile, highlighting recent change and projecting further change over the coming years. The employment analysis found that Gippsland has a lower rate of participation in the labour force than Melbourne. In regard to industry, of the eight largest industries in Gippsland, manufacturing is the only one projected not to grow. The demographic analysis identified that the proportion of 20–40 year olds in Gippsland was significantly lower than in Melbourne and Victoria.

The second report provided statistical analysis of the local student profile, examining the numbers of school students and retention rates to year 12, the destinations of year 12 completers and tertiary choices of non-year 12 applicants from Gippsland. It found that school retention rates are significantly lower in Gippsland than in metropolitan regions. Analysis of On Track Victorian school-leaver data found that, compared to other regions in Victoria, school completers in Gippsland are less likely to be studying a Bachelor degree and are more likely to be studying at Certificate I–III level, in an apprenticeship, in part-time employment or looking for work. The report also identified that there are large numbers of adult learners within the region.

The third report provides three projections of attendance rates at technical and vocational courses and tertiary courses in the Gippsland region, and focuses on persons aged 18-22. The three projections in this report are all modelled from 2006-2026, as 2006 represents the most recently available Census data. A Flat Projection assumes that 2006 proportions of attendees will remain stable. A Conservative Projection assumes that the trends in tertiary attendance in Gippsland will continue into the coming decades, while an Optimistic Projection assumes that tertiary attendance will rise at a more rapid rate than has been evident in the past decade or so.

The information contained in these reports is being used to help achieve the goals of the Gippsland Tertiary Education Plan – to improve the delivery of tertiary education, improve post-school destinations for students, improve participation in education and training more generally for the community, identify and rectify gaps in delivery, and to prepare the sector for demand driven funding in both higher education and vocational education and training.

Each of the full reports is available from the ACER Research Repository:

Industry, Employment, and Population Profile - Supporting Analysis: Gippsland Tertiary Education Plan by ACER researchers Daniel Edwards, Paul Weldon and Tim Friedman
http://research.acer.edu.au/higher_education/24/

Student Profile - Supporting Analysis: Gippsland Tertiary Education Plan by ACER researchers Daniel Edwards and Catherine Underwood
http://research.acer.edu.au/higher_education/26/

Student Demand Projections - Supporting Analysis: Gippsland Tertiary Education Plan by ACER researchers Daniel Edwards and Paul Weldon
http://research.acer.edu.au/higher_education/25/

Informing tertiary education planning