An ACER report on the expected and achieved post-school destinations of NSW secondary students released in November shows that students’ expectations for university study are substantially higher than the actual proportions that pursue university education in the year after leaving school.

It also revealed that, while students and their parents share similar expectations for university study, teachers hold lower expectations.

Commissioned by the NSW Board of Vocational Education and Training and facilitated by the NSW Department of Education and Board of Studies, the report was based on a representative survey conducted in late 2010 of approximately 6100 NSW students who were in Years 10, 11 and 12 in 2009. Parents and teachers also participated in the study.

The survey revealed that almost 70 per cent of students surveyed expected to study at university after leaving school. In contrast about 42 per cent of young persons who left school in 2009 were at university in 2010. The proportion of Year 12 graduates from 2009 attending university in 2010 was around 48 per cent.

The report authors note that, while the incidence of university study would be somewhat higher if reported on two or three years after leaving school, the final proportion that attended university would still be substantially lower than the proportion expecting university study during senior secondary school.

Parents’ shared similar expectations to their children, with around 65 per cent reporting they expect their child will attend university. Teacher expectations for university study were substantially lower, at around 35 per cent.

It is important to note that, in this study, student and parent expectations for post-school study are not strictly comparable with teacher expectations. This is because teachers were asked to nominate the approximate percentages that in six months time will have begun an apprenticeship or traineeship, started university or a TAFE course, be working, unemployed or other. In contrast, students and their parents were asked about university or vocational study for an individual student any time in the future. The expectations of students and their parents are in part aspirations, whereas teachers simply report what they understand as the likely destinations based on knowledge of previous cohorts.

The expectations for vocational study are lower than the actual levels of participation.  Around 22 per cent of students, 14 per cent of their parents and 15 per cent of teachers expect them to pursue vocational study or training other than university study. Overall, about 24 per cent of people who left school in 2009 were in vocational education and training in 2010, including study at a TAFE Institute or private provider, or as part of an apprenticeship or traineeship.

According to the report authors, these findings most likely reflect the higher status that students and their parents view university courses with compared to vocational courses, as students and their parents naturally aspire to the more highly valued outcome.

The full report, Career Moves: Expectations and Destinations of NSW Senior Secondary Students by ACER Researchers Gary Marks, Catherine Underwood, Sheldon Rothman and Justin Brown, is available from: http://research.acer.edu.au/transitions_misc/11/

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